Government revises inflation estimate, and minimum wage in 2023 should rise less than expected | Economy

The Economic Policy Secretariat of the Ministry of Economy released this Thursday (15) the official estimate for this year’s National Consumer Price Index (INPC), which went from 7.41% to 6.54%.

The INPC is the basis for the annual correction of the minimum wage by the government. If this predicted increase is confirmed and there is no change in the calculation, the readjustment of the minimum wage in 2022 will also be lower than previously estimated.

Last week, the government sent the 2023 budget proposal contemplating R$ 1,302 for the minimum wage – a value that only considers the variation of inflation this year (previously at 7.41%).

Minimum wage: government proposal does not provide for a real increase

Minimum wage: government proposal does not provide for a real increase

As the estimate for the INPC has dropped, the value of the minimum wage should also be lower, at R$ 1,291.26. If it is rounded, it would go to R$1,292, that is, R$10 less than what was announced last week. The calculation was done by g1based on the new inflation estimate.

That new estimate for the minimum wage is also provisional. If the inflation measured by the INPC in 2022 is different from the estimate, the government will have to review the amount. The floor value for 2023 will be defined by the end of the year.

According to information from the Inter-union Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies (Dieese), the minimum wage serves as a reference for 56.7 million people in Brazil, of which 24.2 million are beneficiaries of the National Social Security Institute (INSS).

If the decision not to give a real increase to the minimum wage is confirmed in 2023, this will be the fourth year without a rise above inflation.

This format was adopted in 2020, when the economic area granted an adjustment only based on 2019 inflation. As a result, the government changed the policy of real increases (above inflation) that had been implemented in recent years, instituted in the Dilma Rousseff government .

The policy of readjustments for inflation and GDP variation was in force between 2011 and 2019, but the minimum wage did not always rise above inflation.

In 2017 and 2018, for example, the adjustment was granted only based on inflation because the GDP of previous years (2015 and 2016) had a retraction. Therefore, in order to comply with the proposed formula, only inflation served as the basis for the increase.

  • Ciro Gomes (PDT) stated in a social network, in February, that readjusting the minimum wage above inflation is fundamental. “It is not possible to admit so many years without a real increase. Brazil currently has the second worst minimum wage among the 35 member countries of the OECD, second only to Mexico”, he declared.
  • The management of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) has not worked with real appreciation (above inflation) of the minimum wage, due to the impact on public accounts. The last rise above inflation took place in 2019.
  • In his government plan, candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) defends re-establishing a policy to value the minimum wage to recover the “purchasing power of workers, and beneficiaries of social security and assistance policies”.
  • Simone Tebet (MDB) stated in July that it is possible to give a real increase to the minimum wage, that is, above inflation. But she highlighted that it is important to have responsibility, paying attention to the moment lived in Brazil of fragility of public accounts.

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