Ibovespa closes down 0.54%, on a bearish day on Wall Street; dollar advances 1.18%

The Ibovespa closed down 0.54% this Thursday (15), at 109,953 points. The main index of the Brazilian stock exchange followed, to a large extent, the movement that was seen in the United States, where investors continue to reflect the negative surprise of the country’s inflation data.

In New York, the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped 0.56%, 1.13% and 1.43%, respectively.

“Since Tuesday [quando o CPI foi publicado]the markets entered a trend of risk off. Interest rates have risen and the dollar has appreciated against currencies as a whole”, says Fábio Guarda, partner and manager at Galapagos Capital.

With fears that inflation in the United States will remain strong, investors expect directors of the Federal Reserve, who meet next week to decide the future of the country’s interest rate, to remain more aggressive.

You treasuries yieldswith this, they continue to advance – today, the ten-year bond was at 3.447%, up 3.5 basis points, and the two-year bond was at 3.856%, up 7.4 points.

“It’s a bad indicator for the economy. With treasuries at these levels, investors get scared and sell shares”, says Ubirajara Silva, also a manager at Galapagos. “At treasuries they went from a level of 3.15% to 3.30% and now they go to 3.45%. This causes a flow of money to the United States”, adds Guarda.

As a result, the dollar gained strength worldwide and also against the real – with a high of 1.18%, trading at R$ 5.239 in the purchase and sale.

“The fact is that yesterday the movement happened across the globe as a whole and Brazil was worse. Today, in general, currencies are better than the real. The Brazilian currency stands out among the worst”, says Guarda.

In addition to suffering from the natural flow of capital to the United States, generated by the rise in US bond rates, the Brazilian currency also suffered from the decline in commodities – with the prospect of monetary tightening and a possible global recession, products do not manufactured goods fell, with a barrel of Brent crude falling 3.50% to US$ 90.81.

“We de-anchored our yield curve. Last week we visited lows, 40 basis points below what is being negotiated now”, explain the Galapagos specialists. “The IBC-Br, published today, was still very strong, above expectations. This puts more pressure on the Central Bank, in a scenario of high inflation abroad, with pressured commodities. It calls into question the decision to pause interest rate hikes at the next meeting”.

The DIs for 2023 rose by three basis points, to 13.78%, and those for 2025, by 12 points, to 12.04%. The DIs for 2027 and 2029 gained 12 and 10 points, respectively, at 11.73% and 11.85%. On the long end, the DI for 2031 was 11.92%, up eight basis points.

Due to the rise in interest rates, among the Ibovespa falls, the shares linked to the domestic market were highlighted – Via’s common shares (VIIA3) fell 4.6%, Qualicorp’s (QUAL3), 4.29%, and from Petz (PETZ3), 4.02%. Also negative highlights were the shares of CSN (CSNA3), with a decrease of 4.65% and those of Ecorodovias (ECOR3), with a fall of 11.97%.

“The fall of Ecorodovias was due to a relevant fact. The company got a concession for a new highway and the market did not like it very much, perhaps because of the price, of R$ 1.2 billion”, contextualizes Nicolas Merola, an analyst at Inv.

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About Yadunandan Singh

Born in 1992, Yadunandan approaches the world of video games thanks to two sacred monsters like Diablo and above all Sonic, strictly in the Sega Saturn version. Ranging between consoles and PCs, he is particularly fond of platform titles and RPGs, not disdaining all other genres and moving in the constant search for the perfect balance between narration and interactivity.

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