Elmano 30%, Captain Wagner 29%, Roberto Cláudio 22%

Third round of the Ipec poll for the electoral scenario of Ceará points to a technical tie between Elmano Freitas (PT) and Captain Wagner (UB) in the lead of the dispute, with a numerical advantage for the PT. Ten days before the election, Elmano would have 30% of the voting intentions and Wagner 29%. Roberto Cláudio (PDT) appears right behind, with 22%.

Chico Malta (PCB) and Zé Batista (PSTU) appear with 1% each. Serley Leal (UP) did not score. Whites and nulls are 9%, those who do not know or have not responded, 8%. The survey was commissioned by TV Verdes Mares and heard 1,200 voters between the 19th and 21st of September. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Elmano Freitas (PT): 30%
Captain Wagner (UB): 29%
Roberto Cláudio (PDT): 22%
Chico Malta (PCB): 1%
Zé Batista (PSTU): 1%
Serley Leal (UP): 0%
White/Null: 9%
Don’t know/Didn’t answer: 8%

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Compared to the previous IPEC poll, released on September 9, Captain Wagner (UB) dropped 7 percentage points from 35% of voting intentions for the first round. Roberto Cláudio (PDT) moved up one point, going from 21% to 22%, and Elmano Freitas (PT) went from 21% to 30%, up 9 percentage points.

in relation to second round, candidate Elmano Freitas (PT) is ahead of Capitão Wagner (UB), with 47% to 35%, and Roberto Cláudio (PDT), with 40% to 34%. In the simulation between Captain Wagner (UB) and Roberto Cláudio (PDT), the pedestrian appears ahead, with 43% to 35%.

  • Captain Wagner (UB): 35%
    Roberto Cláudio (PDT): 43%

  • Captain Wagner (UB): 35%
    Elmano Freitas (PT): 47%

  • Elmano Freitas (PT): 40%
    Roberto Cláudio (PDT): 34%

In the second round simulations, in the second round scenario with Captain Wagner (UB) and Roberto Cláudio (PDT), the União Brasil candidate saw his advantage drop 6 percentage points in relation to the pedestrian, who grew 3% in the simulation. Voters who vote white/null went from 12% to 16% and those who did not know how to respond went from 8% to 6%.

In a second round scenario between Captain Wagner (UB) and Elmano Freitas (PT), Wagner lost nine points against Elmano, who grew 9 points. Whites/nulls went from 10% to 11% and voters who did not know how to respond went from 8% to 7%.

Between Roberto Cláudio (PDT) and Elmano Freitas (PT), in the simulation of the second round, the pedestrian went from 38% to 34%, while Elmano went from 35% to 40%. White/null votes increased by 1 percentage point, from 17% to 18%, and those who did not know how to respond went from 10% to 8%.

The survey is carried out by the Ipec Intelligence Institute – formed by former members of Ibope – and is registered with the Regional Electoral Court of Ceará (TRE-CE) with protocol CE-03914/2022 and with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) with number BR-02694 /2022. The survey was conducted face-to-face and the confidence level is 95%.

Also on Thursday, 22, the result of the Ipespe survey was released. The numbers differ from those shown by Ipec.

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