Ipespe: 9 days before the election, Lula grows 3 points and Bolsonaro remains stagnant

The survey by the Ipespe institute released this Friday 23 shows a growth of 3 percentage points for former president Lula (PT) in the presidential race for the Planalto. The PT now has, according to the institute, 46% of voting intentions, compared to 35% for Jair Bolsonaro (PL), who remained stagnant in the period. The survey is contracted by XP Investimentos.

The result marks new confirmation that the PT campaign for the useful vote, fierce in the last week, has been proving effective. The former president jumped or fluctuated positively in the voting intentions monitored by surveys from different institutes in the last 7 days. Bolsonaro, in turn, remained stable in most of them.

Lula’s intention in recent days has been to advance on voters of candidates with profiles opposed to Bolsonaro. The objective is to convince that confirming the ex-captain’s defeat in the first round is more important than marking ideological positions in this election. The offensive has particularly affected supporters of Ciro Gomes (PDT). It is not by chance that voting intentions for the pedetista oscillated two points down since the last survey, reaching 7% this Friday.

Another target of the useful vote campaign is Simone Tebet (MDB). The senator had been on a rise since the debate in the Band, when she stood out in the clash against Bolsonaro. The trend, however, was interrupted in this final stretch of the campaign. It now has 4%, compared to the 5% it had in the last survey. The last candidate to score is Soraya Thronicke (União Brasil), with 1%.

Lula, in addition to advancing in the stimulated survey, also managed to oscillate positively in the spontaneous survey, when no candidate options are presented to the interviewees. He had 40% in the last survey and adds 41% this Friday. Bolsonaro kept the same 34%. Ciro, in this case, adds 5%.

second round

There are still five scenarios in the second round surveyed in the Ipespe survey released this Friday. In the main, Lula would beat Bolsonaro by 54% to 37%, a gap of 17 percentage points. In the previous survey, the difference between the two was 15 points. The expansion of the distance took place after Lula varied 1 point up and Bolsonaro 1 down.

In the other scenarios, Lula would win Ciro Gomes by a difference of 21 points and Tebet by a distance of 28. Bolsonaro, in turn, would be defeated by the pedetista by 47% to 43% and would beat Tebet by only 1 point.


This Friday’s poll also confirms that Bolsonaro is the candidate most rejected by Brazilian voters. The former captain has 55% of nominations ‘no vote at all’, according to Ipespe. Lula has 42%, Ciro 37% and Simone 31%. The other candidates, who were worst placed in the survey, also have significant rejection rates.

The survey was carried out with 2,000 telephone interviews between the 19th and 21st of September. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points. In the Electoral Court the registration is BR-08425/2022. See the full:


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