Data from the most recent Datafolha survey, released this Friday (23), show that one in five voters Ciro Gomes (PDT) and Simone Tebet (MDB) admits to changing his vote to support whoever is ahead in the polls for the presidential election on October 2nd, the so-called “useful vote”.
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The percentage among voters of Ciro (21%) and Tebet (22%) is higher than the general number of voters who admit they can change their vote, which represents 11%. In total, another 86% responded that they would not change their vote, and 2% were undecided on the subject.
The latest Datafolha poll this Thursday (22) points out that former President Lula (PT) leads the voting intentions in the first round with 47%, followed by President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), with 33%. Ciro Gomes (PDT) appears in third, with 7%, and Simone Tebet (MDB) in fourth, with 5%.
In the portion that declares a vote for Lula, 11% would change their vote to end the dispute in the first round by voting for the leader of the polls, a higher rate than among Bolsonaro voters (6%).
Willingness to vote and potential for abstention
More than half (57%) of voters say they are eager to vote in this year’s presidential election. Those who said they had a little desire were 23%; with no will, 19%; and those who did not give an opinion, 1%.
The percentage of men who said they wanted to vote is higher than that of women: 62% against 52%, respectively. Voters aged over 35 years also showed greater willingness (61%) than young people aged 16 to 24 (40%).
Datafolha also asked about the intention to attend the vote on October 2nd. The vast majority say they will definitely vote (92%). Those who say they might vote are 4%, and those who say they won’t be voting are 3%.
Based on the results of the questions on willingness to vote and intention to attend, the institute also analyzed the potential for abstention from voting. In the group with low abstention potential are the 79% of voters who declared to have a lot or a little desire to vote for president and say they will go to the polls. In this group, 51% vote for Lula, and 36% for Bolsonaro.
On the opposite side, there are 16% of voters who declared that they will go to the polls, but say they have no desire to vote for president. In this group with the highest abstention potential, there are proportionately more women (21%) than men (11%), and more voters from the Southeast (21%) than from the Northeast (10%).
The survey heard 6,754 people, between September 20 and 22, in 343 municipalities. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points, within the 95% confidence level. The search code in the Electoral Court is: BR-04180/2022.