Analysts predict the peso will strengthen slightly at the end of 2024 • Economy and Finance • Forbes Mexico

Analysts predict the peso will strengthen slightly at the end of 2024 • Economy and Finance • Forbes Mexico

Experts consulted in the latest biweekly Citibanmex survey believe the exchange rate will end this year at 18.20 pesos per dollar, not 18.50, as projected in a previous survey.

By the end of 2025, it is expected that the dollar will be at 19 pesos, not 19.15 units.

The exchange rate has remained below 17 pesos per dollar for 12 consecutive sessions.

On the other hand, experts have predicted a rise in general inflation at the annual rate in the first fortnight of March to 4.44% after 4.35% recorded in the previous fortnight.

On Friday, Inegi will release inflation data for the first half of March.

For the whole of March, experts estimate an annual rate of 4.48%, which would be above the 4.40% registered in February.

Experts did not revise their forecast for general inflation at the end of 2024, leaving it at 4.10%, although they revised their estimate for underlying inflation upward slightly, rising to 4.10% from 4.08%.

The implicit component of inflation does not consider goods and services whose prices are more volatile, such as agricultural products, which is why it is considered a better tool to observe the trajectory of the indicator.

Banxico aims to keep general inflation at 3%, a level considered healthy for the economy. The central bank expects inflation to reach the target in the second quarter of 2025.

Read: Mexico inflation slows more than expected to 4.40% in February

This Thursday Bancco will announce its monetary policy decision, and the market expects the entity to end the pause it has had since last May by announcing a 25 basis point cut in its key interest rate, leaving it at 11%.

Experts consulted by Citibanmex kept unchanged their expectations that the Banco would cut its rate to 9.50% by the end of 2024.

Regarding the expansion of the economy, the analysis groups consulted maintained their forecast of 2.4% for this year, and reduced it for 2025 from 1.9% to 1.8%.

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