ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, 28 July 2023

Key takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the front and reportedly advanced near Bakhmut on 28 July.
• Russian naval posture in the Black Sea is likely intended to impose a de facto blockade of Ukrainian ports without committing the Black Sea Fleet to enforce a naval blockade.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to reassure African partner states that Russia will maintain its economic and security commitments during the second day of the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg.
• The Kremlin continues to show little interest in an unspecific peace plan focused on eliminating disruptions to international trade proposed by African heads of state.
• Russian authorities may become increasingly concerned about how Russian voters view the war ahead of regional elections in September 2023 and the Russian presidential election in 2024.
• Politico reported that the first batch of refurbished US Abrams tanks is likely to arrive in Ukraine in September.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line near Bakhmut and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on 28 July, making progress in some areas.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 28, reportedly advancing along the Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut and along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border.
• The Russian Federation Council approved measures allowing the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) to receive heavy military equipment and increasing the upper limit of the conscription age from 27 years to 30 years.
• Russian authorities continue to deport Ukrainian teenagers to Russia under the guise of summer camp programs.

Authors: Riley Bailey, Angelica Evans, Grace Mappes, Christina Harward, George Barros and Mason Clark.

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