Who are the favorites to win the 2024 presidential elections in Mexico? This is what the survey says

(CNN) — Claudia Sheinbaum, the ruling Morena party’s candidate for president, maintains a lead of 52 percentage points over her nearest rival Xochitl Galvez from the opposition faction, the latest De las Heras poll conducted between 10 and 14 showed. since January.

In a recent survey, the former head of the Mexico City government achieved 66% of voting intentions, compared to 14% achieved by the candidates of the Institutional Revolutionary Parties (PRI), National Action (PAN) and the coalition. Democratic Revolution (PRD).

The Citizens Movement’s candidate, Jorge Álvarez Ménez, appears to be 2% away from voting intention, according to the de las Heras survey, which was applied to 1,280 adults in households across the country and when asked which party, the candidate Or candidates will vote for President.

Some analysts believe that there are several factors that explain the advantage Sheinbaum gets from all public surveys, because according to them, the party’s brand and the current approval level maintained by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador are of great importance. .

“Having a president who has a good level of approval is very important, and we have also seen a president who is always present in communications, on the public agenda,” says political analyst Lorena Becerra.

A parametric poll last December gave Morenista Sheinbaum 53% electoral preference over the opposition Frente Amplio candidate’s 26%.

He was followed by Álvarez Ménez with 5%, who registered his candidacy last January 10, eight days before the end of the pre-campaign in the country, the period established by the electoral law in which political parties present their candidates through internal means. Let’s define. Processes.

However, on this occasion, the ruling faction and the opposition decided to pre-select their presidential standard-bearers, who pre-campaigned without internal rivals.

The parametric survey was administered to 1,600 adults in households across the country between November and December last year. However, 800 were done between 27 and 30 December 2023 and that too with the same question that which party, candidate or candidates will vote for the President.

“I will tell you that the numbers are explained by a great campaign that the party in power had, I will tell you that the key date is August 22, the first conference in the morning where the President speaks for the first time about potential candidates for the presidency. , later called “Corcolatas.” This is August 2022,” says Francisco Abundis, director of Parametry.

For its part, in its most recent poll, the newspaper El Financiero found that Sheinbaum increased his preferences in December, receiving 52% compared to 30% for his rival from the opposition faction, leading to 19 percent in November. The advantage increased to 22 points. In December. Citizen Movement candidate got 7 percent marks. The survey was conducted by telephone between 8 and 21 December with 1,200 people aged over 18.

In the de las Heras study, 78% of those surveyed said they knew Morena’s candidate, 66% Gálvez, while 12% knew Álvarez Ménez, the so-called Orange Party candidate.

While regarding negative and positive images, de las Heras’ study indicated that 77% had a favorable opinion of Sheinbaum, while 7% had a negative opinion. Xochitl Gálvez received 38% positive opinions out of 40% negative opinions. In the case of Alvarez Menez, 33% were positive compared to 33% negative.

However, some people believe that some things may change between now and the June 2 election. “Mexico, unlike other South American countries where you do not have compulsory voting, although it works for us, as is usually the case in presidential elections, we are going to keep the level of participation between 60 or 65% . Pass was 63%. That 35% that doesn’t go out to vote can drastically change the outcome of the election, it can tighten it or it can even open it up,” says Parametria’s Abundis.

However, we have to see how much of a comeback the opposition faction’s candidate is able to make in the remaining approximately four months of the race. “A good part of what happened or has happened with Xochitl’s campaign is that it stayed in a gray area where she was still trying to present herself as an alternative to a woman who comes from the bottom , who is empathetic and close to people, says Lorena Becerra.

“But it remained there and that is why this stagnation is being felt. But there is no doubt that this may change once the campaign starts, that is fundamentally the challenge,” says the political analyst.

The electoral process in Mexico is now in the inter-campaign phase, a time in which candidates cannot call on citizens to vote or proselytize, although they can make media appearances and meet with their followers to support the country. Can travel to.

All of this is before the federal campaigns begin on March 1 and end on May 29, three days before the presidential election on June 2.


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