Experts warn about the risk of a debt crisis in the US due to the difficulty of the commercial real estate sector

growing concern among fund manager Due to the possible consequences of collapse in commercial real estate sector have promoted the fear of systemic debt crisis In usaAs a recent survey revealed Bank of Americapublished by Fox News.

Nearly 16% of global survey participants identified a “systemic credit event” as the top risk to markets in February, a notable increase from 11% the previous month, making it the third-biggest risk.

A systemic debt crisis occurs when something serious goes wrong financial systemUsually characterized by unexpected bankruptcy banking institutions important, which has led to a widespread crisis of confidence among the people investors And depositors, This could be a reason significant reduction in the availability of Credit And Loan For companies and consumers, negatively impacting economy In general.

federal Reserve raised Rate of interest At the highest level since 2001, in an effort to combat inflationAnd these rates are expected to remain high for some time. “Policymakers are unwilling to lower rates until they are confident that inflation is back to 2%.”The report said.

of this environment high rates has worsened the financial situation for borrowers in commercial real estate marketBecause they face higher borrowing costs and declining property values ​​due to the increase in remote work.

Approximately $1.5 billion in commercial mortgage loans is projected to mature by the end of 2025, which presents a challenging scenario. Only loan this year commercial real estate The value is set to mature at approximately $929 billion, according to Mortgage Bankers Association, This may cause borrowers to refinance under less favorable terms or sell their properties at a significant loss.

The matter has become even more complicated with the revelations of New York Community Bank An unexpected quarterly reduction on real estate loans resulted in the loss of nearly half of its stock value. ,The fear was created earlier this monthReport highlights the instability Area,

To add to the picture, small and regional banks, which are the main providers of loans commercial real estate market Worth $20,000 million, they keep about 80% of it outstanding debt of the sector, The financial turmoil that followed the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank Concerns have grown in the past year that tightening lending standards would become too restrictive.

apart from the difficulties commercial real estateOther possible sources of A debt crisis include shade bench -Unregulated financial institutions like hedge fundsPrivate equity funds, investment banks and mortgage lenders—and corporate loan United States of america.

Despite the impending challenges, the Secretary of treasure janet yellen attempted to minimize potential impacts within commercial real estate sector About banking system. During his testimony before senate finance committeeYellen expressed expectation that although weakness in that sector would likely generate further banking stress and financial losses, “This will not pose a systemic risk to the banking system”Highlighting that although smaller banks may be affected by these developments, the risk to larger banks is relatively low.

This set of factors has shed a cautionary light regarding the stability of the financial system commercial real estate marketIf not addressed adequately, it could lead to a debt crisis affecting various sectors. US economy,