Lopez Obrador’s constitutional reforms put the opposition in trouble. mexican elections 2024

Andrés Manuel López Obrador is presenting this Monday a series of constitutional reforms so sweeping that it looks like a government program from the beginning of a six-year term. For its approval it needs majority, which it does not have in the Congress, hence it will need the approval of the opposition which is entangled in the elephant’s trap. If the opponents are to be believed, they will have to deal with the voters no less in the midst of the campaign for the elections to be held on June 2. If he says yes, his people may not like it and, in any case, it will be presented as a success for the President. difficult situation. If a few weeks ago the PAN, PRI and PRD had announced that they would be a strong shield against presidential initiatives, now they have changed the message. Who dares to say no to constitutional approval of increases in pensions and their budgets? Who could deny that workers should have a 40-hour week instead of 48? Nobody is in their right electoral mind. All three parties allied against Morena have already said that these two measures could lead to votes in his favor.

Earlier it seemed that the President wanted to somehow push through his reforms before the end of his term, but now it has turned out to be an electoral masterstroke. The reform package is to be debated in the coming weeks, when PAN member Xochitl Gálvez, far ahead in political polls, will campaign until the last vote against Morenista candidate Claudia Sheinbaum. López Obrador will then have endless open public debates in Congress, with which he intends not only to constitutionally guarantee 100% of the employee’s salary for his or her retired pension, but also to cut the age to 65, or make it This is to guarantee a reduction to 40 hours per week. .working day. It also introduces reforms to citizen consultation so that 30% participation is sufficient to achieve a binding outcome; The election of judges and magistrates by popular vote, which has been heated for months by people accusing these public officers of being in favor of privilege and being distant from the common people; Constitutional support so that social assistance is not reversed, one of the strong points of this government before the elections; A modification of the electoral law that is easier to sell to citizens because it withdraws resources from the political class and makes the Electoral Court useless while reducing the weight of the INE, similar to withdrawing the jurisdiction of the President of the Republic, The measure has high popular importance or populist, depending on who qualifies it; The minimum wage always remains above inflation; The extinction of autonomous organizations was also criticized as costly and wasteful; Reforming electricity laws, transferring the National Guard under military command or a constitutional ban on the consumption of fentanyl, etc.

Analysts and the opposition have already said that these reforms are a covert electoral program, which is unacceptable interference in the campaign by the President. Some would like to see a certain nervousness on the part of Morena in the initiative, if not to win the presidency, which seems to be an easy terrain, given the need to gain a sufficient majority in Congress to guarantee him a comfortable position in the last year. . Leaves a solid foundation for the next government. There is nothing more effective in winning votes than telling citizens that the opposition does not allow the winning party to govern, for example, it does not allow it to increase pensions. Aware of this, Gálvez and the PRI were quick to declare themselves in favor of certain reforms. But the headlines in the media may still not be to your liking: some mention that they have “joined” the president, while López Obrador claims the “desperation” of his opponents forces him to , he says, to vote for them. In favor of some of its measures. And analyzing others.

It is often mentioned that citizens do not like the Manichean political game that forces one side to say one thing and forces the opponent to systematically position itself against it. But electoral campaigns require biting, sharp teeth to unite voters, fight, articulate and gain position. And these presidential reforms put the opposition parties in trouble, which were already in a weak ideological position due to the disparity in norms among the members of the coalition, whose only common denominator is the rejection of the government of the President and his party, Morena. Apart from this, they also do not hesitate to quarrel among themselves regarding the candidates. Being in government is like playing at home, there is always some benefit from it. The opposition will therefore have to choose well when to capitulate and when to strengthen attacks to avoid criticism from insiders and others and taking advantage of the political scandal. The civil movement and its candidate, Jorge Álvarez Menez, must demonstrate the same balance. Today, as six years ago, they face a charismatic president who has promised to disappear from public life when his term ends, but not a minute before.

If the campaign was expected to be lackluster, as the opposition faces only one official candidate who is locked into his constituency under the security of electoral advantage, these reforms could liven up the contest. And make it dirty also. There will be no shortage of criticism of the government for interfering in the electoral game and the debate before the referee could be full of complaints. But the initiatives presented before the Chambers are so important that they are expected to be even more vigorous than the campaign. The public battle that could decide the citizens’ vote will also take place in the legislative arena.

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