Bitcoin ETF Price Already Discounted, What’s Next?

Important facts:
  • According to Glassnode, the launch of the ETF was “historic and chaotic” for the market.

  • The analysis firm suggests that ETFs, halving and hodling could lead to a bullish trend.

According to Glassnode, a cryptoasset market analysis company, “the ETF has already been discounted to the price of Bitcoin (BTC).” This was said in a report on January 16, a week after such cash currency products were approved in the United States.

Glassnode says that “several metrics suggest that a non-trivial portion of Bitcoin investors treated this as a news-selling event.” Highlights 75,000 BTC Profit Taking by Hodlers (long-term holders), as shown in the following image.

The blue line shows the long-term stored supply of Bitcoin (over 155 days). Source: Glassnode.

“The amount of spending for these older holders is statistically significant,” the analytics company stressed. In fact, it contributed to This is the biggest profit since Bitcoin reached its all-time high price In November 2021. This can be seen in the next graph.

Bitcoins were sold at a profit. Source: Glassnode.

Glassnode warned that these types of events “are relatively rare, however, they often align with uptrending markets facing significant resistance.” Therefore, it suggests First pause may occur at the price of Bitcoin resume growth,

As CriptoNoticias Cryptopedia explains, this is called resistance. In a price zone where there is more supply than demand, which inhibits its growth and encourages its recurrence. The same happened with BTC, when after the launch of the ETF, it dropped from $49,000, the most in more than two years, to around $42,000.

“The main question facing us is whether the influx of demand from ETFs, either in anticipation of the April halving, or from docile and reliable holders, will be enough to overcome this resistance,” Glassnode said in a preview. told. Factors that can increase the price of Bitcoin,

He acknowledged that the approval of a BTC spot ETF in the United States “marks the end of Bitcoin’s maturity phase and the beginning of its growth phase,” as it gives the currency access to the largest market share globally. Therefore, this could spur a rise in the currency, which could be reinforced by the next halving (halving of BTC issuance), as this event reduces the supply.

In conclusion, the analysis company classified the approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF as “a historic and chaotic event” for the market, with BTC prices reaching new two-year highs and new lows so far in 2024. This can be seen in the following Trading View. chart.

Bitcoin price from end of 2021 to end of 2024. Source: TradingView.

Fidelity believes it will take “some time” for Bitcoin to become widely adopted

Jurien Timmer, head of global macro at Fidelity, one of the companies that launched a spot bitcoin ETF last week. Revealed In line with Glassnode that current trends in Bitcoin’s price suggest difficulty in continuing growth in the short term.

“My guess is that it will take some time to consolidate recent gains, now the big moment has come,” he said. However, he clarified that, In the medium and long term, ETFs may attract new demand in the market which reactivates growth,

“Will this be a new chapter towards widespread adoption of Bitcoin as a commodity currency? “It looks like it may take some time to get there, though,” the Fidelity executive concluded.

(TagstoTranslate)Analysis and Research(T)Bitcoin (BTC)(T)ETFs(T)Relevant Prices and Trading(T)

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