After a huge rise in the S&P 500 index, more strategists have joined in betting on another rise in 2024

It could be a good year for those who invest in the stock market, or at least in the S&P 500, this benchmark index has gained momentum since mid-November and since then more and more banks and analysts have increased their forecasts. has been changed because The good momentum will continue in 2024 also.

Despite the strong arguments and defenses in the exhibit, these predictions are not an exact science. The strength of last year’s close – up 4,760 points (+24%) – and that experienced in 2024 (+9.3%), was boosted by better-than-expected quarterly results, leading many of the big banks to once again add to their books. Are .

The result of these reforms is good news for investors, who should also keep in mind the idea from the previous paragraph: this is not an exact science.

The last entity to change its forecast was Bank of America. Savita Subramaniam’s team a few days ago Reached a target of 5,400 from a target of 5,000 by the end of the year, This means that despite the fact that the entity believes there may be a short-term correction, 5% growth is forecast.

“Corrections of more than 5% happen three times in a year and we have not had any improvement in four months. But both this and the usual pre-election volatility are usually followed by a rally,” an analysis by the bank said after joining a group that is betting on a more bullish end to the year.

The reason for optimism are the indicators that lead to better earnings per share (PER) in companies and the focus on productivity by companies. This is a time for efficiency and cost management to drive greater profitability for companies and shareholders.

Subramanian’s team emphasizes that bull markets (bull market) “Ending with excitement, but we’re not there yet. “Perception has improved, but the scope for enthusiasm remains limited.”,

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Excitement about AI and anti-obesity drugs

for bank of america Those areas of excitement are advances in artificial intelligence and anti-obesity drugs. Throughout the report, there is no mention of the possibility of a reduction in interest rates other than to remind that when that happens there will be greater inflows of capital into the markets as most liquid investment positions are liquidated. Of those who save.

After months of discounting an imminent cut in interest rates, the view is already gaining ground on Wall Street that United States Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is walking on eggshells in the fight against inflation.

There are some forecasts that include a cut in 2025, given that the economy remains strong and conditions that could boost inflation, but the consensus points to the second half of the year.

More generally, David Kostin’s strategy team at Goldman Sachs raised its forecast in mid-January. S&P 500 will not be 5,100 but 5,200 this year,

Kostin has also revised the PER upward and expects strong economic growth in the country and strong profits for companies in the information technology and communications services sectors; Especially the so-called Magnificent Seven (Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla and Amazon). “Top-line growth will be the main driver of potential growth for the remainder of this year.”

Goldman Sachs had already revised down its initial forecast for 2024 in mid-December. The first (4,700) was done when the S&P 500’s upward path was still not in sight.

Those that changed their accounts earlier included UBS, which raised expectations for the benchmark index from 4,850 to 5,150 (which it surpassed today), Piper Sandler & Co. (5,250) and Barclays, which decided to drop it. Beating its forecast of 4,800 points. At 5,300, one of the most bullish.

On that note, investors continue to put their money on new technologies, and Powell does not give a clear indication of when he will lower rates (not in March). The economy is growing at a good pace and job creation continues, with 275,000 new jobs in February.

A year is a very long period, but Today investors are looking at the S&P 500 from a historic peak above 5,180 points And it would not be unreasonable to add more amendments to the list.

Comerica Chief Investment Director John Lynch said his forecast remains at 5,200, which is “a short distance from current levels. “We will review economic forecasts, results and interest rates in the coming months to determine “That a change in our forecast is necessary or appropriate.”

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