America is receiving indications that Iran is concerned about attacks by its supported groups in the Middle East.

(CNN) — According to multiple people familiar with US intelligence services, US officials believe there are signs that Iranian leaders are concerned about some of the actions of groups they support in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, because of attacks carried out by the groups. This threatens to disrupt the global economy and significantly increases the risk of direct conflict with the United States.

Three American soldiers were killed in a drone strike on a checkpoint in Jordan that the United States blamed on the Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq subsidiary group, surprising Tehran and alarming the country’s political leaders. . Officials told CNN citing the US. intelligence services.

Iran-backed fighters have carried out more than 160 attacks on US forces since October. And while Iran has long funded, equipped and trained its militias in the region with the goal of attacking Americans, last weekend’s attack was the first in which U.S. military members were killed since the attacks began . About four months ago.

US intelligence services also suggest that Iran is concerned that attacks by Houthi fighters in Yemen on commercial shipping in the Red Sea could disrupt the economic interests of China and India, Iran’s key allies.

Officials cautioned that Tehran’s increased caution does not appear to change its overall strategy of supporting attacks by groups it supports against American and Western targets, although it may signal adjustments on the margins. But he believes Iran is taking a calculated approach to the conflict, designed to prevent an all-out war.

Officials declined to provide further details about the intelligence, citing sensitivity. However, the United States has traditionally been able to obtain information about Iran through various means, such as recruiting human spies and intercepting Iranian communications.

Officials said the Biden administration is considering options to respond to the recent attack in Jordan, which could include attacks on Iranian assets in the region, but an attack inside Iran is highly unlikely given the US threat of direct war. Not searching. Iran, the White House has said.

Victims of Their Own Success

On Tuesday, Iraq-based militia Kata’ib Hezbollah announced it was suspending all attacks against US forces in a possible effort to de-escalate tensions.

But some current and former US officials doubt Iran will significantly change its strategy. A US military official based in the Middle East said Iran was “quite happy with the way things are going.”

“The Iranian regime has been emboldened by the (Gaza) crisis and appears ready to fight its last territorial outburst,” CIA Director Bill Burns wrote in an essay published Tuesday in Foreign Affairs.

Former senior CIA analyst Norm Ruley said that Iran’s primary goal is to “bring uncertainty and indecision into the deliberations of American policymakers about how hard we should hit Iran,” noting that “voices in the United States And Europe will take advantage of any opportunity for diplomacy, even if there is little evidence of it succeeding.

But, Ruley said, “I don’t see anything, nothing in my mind, that would force the Iranian government to change what it’s doing.”

Members of Hezbollah’s Kata’ib Hezbollah Brigades attend the funeral of Fadel al-Makoussi, a fighter who was also part of the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq”, the group that carried out all the recent attacks on US troops in Iraq and Syria, in Baghdad Has taken responsibility for the attacks. On November 21, 2023. Credit: Ahmed Al-Rubay/AFP/Getty Images

Jonathan Lord, director of the Middle East Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, said, however, that Kata’ib Hezbollah’s statement shows how anticipation of a US response is forcing Tehran to back down “less than momentarily”.

Lord said, “I think it’s interesting that just the fear of a possible escalation in the US response already has a deterrent effect on Iran’s main proxy forces, even though the US has not fired a single shot.” He said the attack in Jordan appeared to have weakened Iran’s approach since October, which was only to avoid putting the United States or Israel “in a bind” and being forced to respond with force. That’s just increasing it.

“They were probably victims of their own success,” Lord said of the attacks in Jordan. “Although this attack was similar to more than 150 previous attacks, the results were more lethal.”

Retaliation for Red Sea attacks

Meanwhile, there are signs that Iranian leaders are concerned that the Houthis’ indiscriminate attacks on shipping in the Red Sea could be echoed in Tehran. The Houthis have attacked US Navy ships, threatening to escalate tensions and the attacks have caused global economic damage.

India has been hit particularly hard, as the Houthis have attacked several ships carrying Indian crew or en route to India. In response, the Indian government has deployed several warships to the Arabian Sea.

The two Chinese state shipping giants have also had to divert dozens of ships to a longer route from the Red Sea around the southern tip of Africa, driving up shipping costs. Beijing expressed concern over the situation on Tuesday and called for an end to attacks on civilian ships.

A US official said, “We are certainly seeing increasing signs of concern on the part of Tehran about the lack of specificity of Houthi targets.” “Diverting all maritime trade (through the Red Sea) is causing a potential backlash in Iran from countries that otherwise might not have minded that Israeli and American shipping had to be diverted.”

The continued Marine attacks, as well as the deaths of Americans, may now bring the United States and Iran closer to the brink that neither country wanted.

The head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hossein Salami, declared on Wednesday that Iran “does not want war, but we are not afraid of war.”

Salami said, “Sometimes the enemy makes threats and these days we hear some threats from the words of American officials, and we tell you… you have tested us, and we know each other, we “Will not let any threat go unanswered.”

“Various Degrees of Loyalty”

This increase also highlights the varying levels of control Iran actually exerts over its proxies.

“Everything indicates that Iran has no interest in entering a cycle of tension with the United States and Israel,” a person familiar with the information said. While Iran believes its proxies deserve support to engage the West and project power, this person said, the proxies also have their own “narrow interests.”

“They have varying degrees of loyalty to Iran,” this person said.

Of all the groups, Iran has the least operational control over the Houthis in Yemen, multiple officials told CNN.

Officials said Iran has greater influence over the interconnected network of militias operating inside Iraq and Syria, and the activity of those groups is often seen by intelligence and military officials as a more accurate barometer of Iranian politics.

Houthi supporters carrying Palestinian flags parade and demonstrate against US and UK attacks in the Bani Husaysh area in Sanaa, Yemen, on January 22, 2024. Credit: Mohammad Hamoud/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

The Iranians have provided some intelligence and weapons support to the Houthis in recent months, including surveillance systems that allow the group to operate in the maritime domain and help facilitate their attacks in the Red Sea. Two U.S. Navy SEALs died after falling overboard while attempting to stop a ship off Somalia earlier this month that U.S. Central Command said was carrying Iranian-made ballistic missile components and cruise missiles to Yemen. , which was controlled by the Houthis.

However, generally speaking, officials said Iran has been wary of the Houthis’ tactics of indiscriminately attacking ships passing through the Red Sea, which the Houthis say reflects US support for Israel’s war in Gaza and British Is opposed to.

Officials say the US has tried to exploit these fears by applying international pressure on Tehran, including through UN Security Council resolutions and several joint multilateral statements with several allies condemning Houthi attacks and His ties with Iran have been exposed.

The United States has also urged China to use its influence to reduce tensions with Iran. In a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Bangkok last weekend, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan stressed the importance of using “our substantial influence with Iran” to deter attacks from Beijing, a senior White House official told reporters on Saturday. Called for use.

“This is not the first time we have asked China to play a constructive role,” the official said. “Beijing says it is raising it with the Iranians, and I think that’s reflected in some press reports. But we’ll certainly wait to see the outcome before making any further comments about that.” How effective do we perceive it to be, or do we actually believe it is effective.” They’re escalating it.”

At this point, it’s unclear whether the pressure is working. CNN reported on Wednesday that despite growing international pressure and multiple US and British attacks on Houthi infrastructure, the Houthis have continued their missile attacks in the Red Sea, including a cruise missile launched on Tuesday night that could hit any Came much closer to the American warship than the others. ,

Sources told CNN that the US intelligence community is doubling its efforts to get a better picture of the Houthis’ weapons capabilities, so that the US can know for sure how much of the Houthis’ capabilities have actually been destroyed in past attacks.