Keys to Understanding the “Bukele Effect” in Latin America

Every time a case of criminal violence shakes the country Latin America A voice rises on the streets, in political forums or on social networks: “What is needed here is Bukele,

President of El Salvador, Nayib BukeleHe, who won with 53% of the vote in 2019, is practically certain of his re-election on Sunday, according to polls – the data of which cannot be published on the eve of the election – against the gangs terrorizing the country. Thanks for his attack.

But its policy “strong hand“It is criticized by human rights activists, because it is based on an extraordinary regime in force from 2022 that allows arrests without a court order and – they say – arbitrary detention, ill-treatment and even That gives rise to torture.

Although “Bukele effectSpread through Peru, Ecuador into Chile and Argentina, facing the fierce onslaught of drug trafficking, Honduras or once peaceful Costa Rica.

According to the 2023 Latino Barometer, Bukele is the most popular ruler in the region, with the support of 90% of Salvadorans.

Why is his strong hand so popular in the field?

BukeleExperts consulted by AFP agree, is an expression of disapproval of traditional politicsDisillusionment with democracy and loss of trust in institutions that do not address the problems of insecurity, poverty and corruption are serious Latin America,

“It’s a sclerosis of the political class (…) that has completely distanced itself from society and what its demands and needs are,” said Michael Shifter, an analyst at the Washington-based Inter-American Dialogue.

Currently, 48% of Latin Americans support democracy as a political system, up from 15 points less than a decade ago, Marta Lagos, director of the Chile-based Latino Barometro NGO, told AFP.

“The democracy He has not replied to the people. When it comes to Securitytill Latin Americans They like official narratives. “We have tried different models and none have been successful,” said Ana María Méndez, Central America director for the Washington Office of Latin American Affairs (WOLA).

For Christophe Ventura, research director at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS), “Bukele is a product of history.” “Latin America is facing the same problems guard“, I note.

What impact will his re-election have on Latin America?

For Ventura, this would “reinforce” the model of “authoritarian populism”. Latin America “which is facing a multifactorial crisis and a decline in social cohesion.” “This will support moving towards this type of governance,” he said.

“His victory shows that today… voters It is willing to reward rulers who respond to their basic needs, “even at the expense of democracy,” Tamara Tarasiuk of the Inter-American Dialogue told AFP.

He highlighted, “This is part of a broader pattern of what is happening in the region.”

Mendez and Tarasiuk He points out that leaders of different ideologies are coming to power through elections and then apply “the same authoritarian script”: they take control of state powers and reform the constitution to stay in power.

Lagos, for its part, commented that “the series of regime changes arises from discontent” and, in the case of El Salvador, “although accompanied by authoritarianism”, Bukele has resolved the security problem and “his country and the entire The area appreciates it.”

How sustainable is the Bukele-style model?

However, for Lagos, Bukele’s model “will crumble as the population’s expectations go beyond security,” as poverty and social inequality will persist. “The honeymoon will be over,” he predicted.

“He has a somewhat idealistic approach to what he’s done Bukele, But you have to watch the entire film. The Latin American who appreciates them does not know all life situations guard“he insisted.

For Ventura, it is difficult for tough policy alone to resist “the power of drug trafficking and crime dynamics, which are regional”.

“You can’t keep people in jail forever,” he said, referring to the 75,000 alleged gang members detained under the emergency rule.

Shifter, for his part, said that very popular leaders like it hugo chavez The latter were “a disaster” in Venezuela (1999–2013) or Alberto Fujimori in Peru (1990–2000).

“Bukele has achieved something at a price acceptable to most of the country”, but “this is only the first chapter of this story (…), he may be an exception to the rule in Latin America, but things could move forward.” This is a turn for the worse,” he added.

be more popular than Pope FrancisAccording to Latino Barometro, analysts do not rule out that 42-year-old Bukele, with all the powers of the state, will seek re-election indefinitely.