Venezuelan opposition hesitating between staking everything on Maria Corina Machado or looking for an alternative

In the coming weeks, Venezuela’s opposition will face a crucial debate that could even decide its survival. The preferred candidate to face Nicolás Maduro in the presidential election on July 28 is María Corina Machado, a conservative politician who has received more points in the polls than the Venezuelan president and who was elected by a landslide in opposition primaries. Which was a success. There is latent dissatisfaction in wide sections of society. However, Chavismo has vetoed his participation through the Supreme Court, which it controls, alleging the alleged commission of several crimes that would disqualify him until 2036. Chavista opponents now face an unfavorable situation in which they no longer have the upper hand. What to do then?

There are voices within the opposition that demand that Machado step aside and allow a new candidacy, around which the rest of the rivals orbit. She has already said that she is not interested, she has got the mandate from the people born out of the primaries in which she got more than 90% of the votes, and she wants to take her political fight to the end. Maria Corina’s only alternative is Maria Corina herself. The registration of candidates will take place on 25th of this month and barring some miracle, she will not be able to feature in the list. In the following months, replacements, changes in stickers and entry from one candidate to another may be made, but it is clear that Machado’s name will not appear on the ballot papers in any case. Chavismo has been inflexible in its vetoes, even at the risk of jeopardizing the oil and gold licenses the United States granted Venezuela in order to avoid international sanctions. His name stirs emotions among the ruling party.

If it continues on this only path, the opposition will jeopardize its participation in the elections and Maduro will have a clear path forward, as was the case in 2018. Then, the Venezuelan Supreme Court barred the Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) and Henriques from participating. , who in his time was on the verge of defeating Hugo Chávez himself. Maduro won practically single-handedly against Henry Falcon and Javier Bertucci. A very significant part of the opposition believed that the mere fact of participating gave international legitimacy to the “dictatorship”, which they condemned. It’s whitewashing it, it was said then. He believed that it was better to isolate Chavismo internationally and cause its decline in the long term. An attempt was made with the interim government of Juan Guaidó, supported by the White House and Europe, but the project failed. When that bold move that has no parallel in the history of diplomacy – the creation of a parallel state that would outlast the original – went extinct in 2020, Maduro remained in power.

Capriles believes that now is the time to arm ourselves electorally and confront Chavismo by any possible means. “Of course we can offer an alternative,” he replied to this newspaper. “This is not a replacement, I will not talk about any alternative. The winner of the primary was Maria Corina, the issue is that the government unconstitutionally disqualified her, as I did. The issue is what to do, and we must participate, appealing to the power of the vote that can unite the millions of Venezuelans who want change in the Maduro government. This is a big challenge: We have to present and bet on a candidate who can garner votes on July 28.”

Capriles’ speech is clear, without any ambiguity: it is better to have someone different from Machado than to get involved in a war against Chavismo in which the opposition has nothing to gain: “Under no circumstances will the country be left without an alternative. cannot be abandoned, because the fate of any country cannot be tied to one person. I am neither in favor of individualism, nor of leaders, which has caused great harm to Venezuela. “We must always think that our There must be unity, separation, thinking about Venezuela and Venezuelans and there must be a huge opportunity for change despite the fact that Maduro is doing everything to remain in power.”

Tomas Guanipa thinks differently. The leader of Primero Justicia, a respected opponent, says the only way out is Machado’s. “All opponents, all civil society must give a vote of confidence to María Corina Machado. Because he has the legitimacy to be elected, we have to unite around him,” he says without hesitation. Consider that exploring alternatives involves confrontation: “Why give him an ultimatum? Without this it is meaningless. The destiny of this endeavor is confirmed by this. We must support him and give him the warm support he needs to move forward in the process that we need to accomplish.” The tension between Capriles and those who think like him and Guanipa, and those who oppose that ideology, cannot be ignored. can be done; They are two very different ways of approaching the same political conflict.

Meanwhile, in other areas of the opposition universe, Luis Emilio Rondón, the national leader of Un Nuevo Tiempo, says that his organization is obliged this time to “prevent them from removing us from the electoral path”, and, knowing that still There are fewer unitary decisions taking more than two weeks to make, he affirms: “We have in our ranks Manuel Rosales, one of the best candidates available to be president.” Rosales is the governor of the country’s most important state, Zulia, and is not faring badly in the polls. Although he and his party remain within the unitary platform, he has spent years developing a moderate line that has allowed him since the governorship to get along well with Maduro, with whom he develops an unusually fluid institutional relationship. Rosales, who was the opposition’s presidential candidate in 2006, is eligible, but has never publicly stated his intention to become a candidate.

Antonio Acarri, leader of the Alianza del Lapiz party, is looking for a third option. He denied that the best possibility was a consensus around a single candidate. “Having only one candidate is a tactical and strategic error. Abstinence and polarization weaken democracy. “This will make any changes more complicated,” he defends in messages. He admits to feeling affection and respect for Machado, he calls him a friend, but he downplays the relevance of the primaries in which 10% of the population voted. He doesn’t doubt his leadership, however, nor does he believe he is alone. “There is a country that has been abstinent for a long time. The frustration of Chavismo and its opponents is increasing. “It’s huge,” he insists, so he believes there is a third way. Some opponents criticize speeches like Icarri’s, because according to them they help unify the opposition and favor Chavismo.

Thus, anti-Chavismo faces a critical moment in its history. One wrong move could turn it into ashes. In a completely hostile scenario, with little room for maneuver, this is not easy at all. They have zero control over institutions, everything falls to Chavismo, who sets the rules. In any case, although they have different opinions, the common thing is that they do not give up and have minimal hopes of defeating Maduro, no matter what the electoral stakes are, although many believe that this is a mirage. .

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