What are the main power alliances in the Middle East behind the delicate tensions in the region?

But experts consulted by BBC Mundo agree that the region has recently been agitated less by issues of faith and more by temporary political and military alliances.

Iran raised alarm bells in the international community when it attacked targets in three different countries: Iraq, Syria and Pakistan in just three days between 15 and 17 January.

While the actions were against specific targets, such as a suspected Israeli intelligence base in Iraq and rival Islamic groups in the case of Syria and Pakistan, experts attributed these attacks to Iranian interest in showing strength in turbulent times.

Tehran has reiterated that it does not want to get involved in a major conflict, although its so-called “axis of resistance” has been very active in recent weeks.

It is made up of armed groups like Axis Hezbollah in Lebanon; Shia militias in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan; Hamas and other militant groups in the Palestinian territories, and Houthi rebels in Yemen.

The BBC Persian service describes his ideology as “blatantly anti-American and anti-Israel”.

All have, to a greater or lesser extent, attacked Israeli or allied targets since the war in Gaza began in October.

Hazem Amira-Fernandez, Middle East expert at the Elcano Royal Institute, explains to BBC Mundo that “the alliances with Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ are some of the most stable and long-lasting alliances in the region.”

Lina Khatib, director of the SOAS Middle East Institute, explains to BBC Mundo, “The alliance between Iran and these groups is a product of the 1979 Iranian Revolution, and serves as a way of exporting its model and promoting their political objectives. Does.” Located in London.

According to experts, these groups emerged from dissatisfaction with the political reality of their countries, which Iran takes advantage of to expand its regional influence.

In an article published by BBC Mundo in 2020, BBC Persian Service journalist Kayvan Hosseini said that all of these groups receive “strategic, economic and ideological support” from Iran.

Here, Michael Kugelman, director of South Asia at the Wilson Center, urges us not to overlook the role of religious sectarianism because “Iran’s proximity to Shia groups and its Saudi counterpart’s proximity to Sunnis,

But, at the same time, he also highlighted that the current rivalries have more to do with the struggle of powers than religious differences.

This would explain, for example, Iranian support for Hamas Despite the fact that this military group comes from the Sunni branch of Islam, as a counterweight to Israel.

Or that within the same group they take different sides depending on the conflict. Hamas and Hezbollah support separate fronts in the Syrian war, but both are united in their goal of eliminating Israel.

For this Iran’s “isolation” in the region. -A In terms of the lack of alliance with state actors in Syria, with the exception of the Bashar al-Assad regime, experts attribute this to two main factors.

First, “because the export model of the Islamic revolution was seen as a threat by the Gulf oil dynasties and other countries in the region and second, because Iran considers itself entitled through history to be a regional hegemonic actor.” Their country, its resources, population and the legacy of the Persian Empire,” says Amira-Fernandez.

“And it clashes with the ambitions of other countries, especially Saudi Arabia,” the analyst says.

Saudi Arabia has taken several steps in recent years to establish itself as a leader in the Arab world.

A few decades ago, the Arabs’ center of gravity was concentrated in Egypt, once the country with the greatest demographic, political and cultural importance in the region.

But Power is shifting towards the Gulf countries and the Arabian PeninsulaWhere exploitation of vast energy resources generated abundant wealth which gradually transformed into influence on the political landscape.

At first, small countries like the United Arab Emirates or Qatar emerged, but later, especially with the advent of real power Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman“Saudi Arabia brought about massive change at home and globally.”

“Its rise was also fueled by its rich hydrocarbon economy and the support provided by the United States as a pressure measure against Iran during Donald Trump’s presidency,” says analyst Amira-Fernandez.

Experts agree that Saudi Arabia is the leader and de facto leader of the Arab League, a regional organization of 22 countries.

“In general, although each country has its own ambitions Egypt and Jordan establish themselves and follow the guide established by the Saudis“Khatib says.

For nearly 40 years, Saudi Arabia and Iran maintained an open rivalry that some experts describe as “The New Middle East Cold War” And, in recent years, this has been exacerbated by ‘proxy wars’ in many areas of the region.

In Yemen, Saudi Arabia has been supporting government forces in the war against Houthi rebels since 2015.

Iran, accused by its rivals of supporting the Houthis, has denied that it sends weapons to the group, which is responsible for missile and drone attacks against Saudi cities and infrastructure.

Saudi Arabia also accuses Iran of meddling in Lebanon and Iraq, where Shia militias have amassed widespread political and military influence. Furthermore, some of these groups have been blamed for attacks on Saudi facilities.

In March 2023, Saudi-Iranian relations enter a new era as diplomatic ties are reestablished and reactivating security, trade, economic and investment agreements in China-brokered talks.

Another example, as experts consulted by BBC Mundo warn, of the continued fluidity and complexity of power relations in the Middle East.

Khatib and Amira-Fernandez agree to keep Qatar on the side of the Saudi-led faction, although they also highlight their role of mediator Which makes it a unique case in the regional balance of power.

Currently, Qatari negotiator They play a unique role as the primary mediators between Israel and Hamas.

And over the years, this billionaire Gulf country has been involved in rapprochement with countries such as Israel or Iran and with political groups very different from those supported by the rest of its neighbors, including mostly Islamist groups such as Hamas or the Muslim Brotherhood, the latter Are old. Saudi’s rival.

These approaches have not always been well accepted by their neighbours.

“In 2017, Qatar was blocked by Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Yemen and Libya because it was seen as a threat because of its political ambitions,” Khatib recalls.

Qatar is an extremely wealthy but small country, which puts it in a vulnerable position, as political scientist Mehran Kamrava points out in his book Queue: Small State, Big Politics (Qatar: Small State, Big Politics)Seeking multiple and diverse alliances as a way of maintaining its security and “improving its diplomatic stature and status”.

Sanctions on Qatar were lifted in 2021 and its relations with its neighbours, especially Saudi Arabia, are experiencing a friendly phase.

Of course, Khatib reiterated, Qatar still wants “To position itself as a more mediator and conciliatory country in its geopolitical strategy.”

Amira-Fernandez defines the Israeli case as an “unusual” example of its alliances in the region and Khatib says that “Acts independently without being associated with any coalition of countries”,

This continues a long and undeclared shadow war against Iran and its supported militias, where small-scale hostilities are repeated without reaching full and open conflict so far.

Its relations with its Arab neighbors are also not easy.

Israel, along with Turkey and Iran, are the only non-Arab countries in the Middle East where it receives very limited recognition as a state.

Of the Arab countries, only Egypt since 1979, Jordan since 1994, and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan since 2020 recognize the Israeli state.

According to Amira-Fernandez, the main reason for this is that “Israel is viewed as an occupier and aggressor by the absolute majority of the population in the Arab-Muslim neighborhood. For its conflict with the Palestinians, which has been deepened by the ongoing war in Gaza.

Shortly before the war against Hamas began on October 7, 2023, Israel was in talks with Saudi Arabia to normalize relations, which would have been a major advance for the Jewish state.

However, a few days after that attack it was reported that Saudi officials asked the United States to do so will paralyze these negotiations Three bands.

Experts consulted by BBC Mundo find it difficult for Israel to abandon this “abnormality” in its alliances and relations without a clear solution to its conflict with the Palestinians.