Bitcoin Halving or ETF Inflows: What Will Take BTC to $195,000?

• BTC surged +68% in Q1 2024, partly due to US spot BTC ETF inflows.
• Krueger predicted that the inflows would cause BTC to reach $195,000 by the end of 2024.

Bitcoin (BTC) The first quarter of 2024 recorded an impressive performance due to inflows from the new US spot BTC ETF (exchange-traded fund).

Digital gold surged more than 68% in the first quarter, rising from $38,500 to $73,700. During the same period, total inflows into spot ETFs reached $12 billion and total assets exceeded $59 billion. Collectively, this increased BTC’s market capitalization to more than $1 trillion.

Bitcoin Price Drivers: Halving vs. ETF Inflows

Using historical data, Bitcoin maximalist and serial investor Fred Krueger estimated that BTC could reach $195,000 by the end of 2024.

Posting his analysis and assumptions on X (formerly Twitter), Krueger shed light on the 2024 cycle. it shows He;

“We are at $70,000 and a market capitalization of $1.4 trillion.

We will probably get an additional investment of $50 billion this year (ETFs plus stock market)

With a multiplier of 50, this is equivalent to $2.5 trillion.

This brings us to a market capitalization of $3.9 trillion or $195,000 BTC.

I think that’s the base case this year. “It could be more.”

kruger Stressed on That the 2024 market bullish cycle was primarily driven by traditional finance ETF (TradeFi) inflows.

“But the real story is the Bitcoin ETF. “TradeFi meets Bitcoin.”

However, he said that BTC could rise to $500,000 in two years before it faces a massive decline.

Krueger did not explicitly explain what would cause a decline if BTC reached $500,000. However, he believed that the stoppage event would reduce price drop But that won’t necessarily lead to a massive rally.

“I think halving paves the way for a rally because it reduces the amount of money being dumped into a 4x rally.”

Put another way, BTC Maximalists view ETF inflows as a more important price driver than the supply shock caused by a halving event.

At the time of this publication, Bitcoin fell below $70,000 and retested the $68,000 area before recovering back to $69,000.

Rect Capital, a crypto market analyst,

reclaim The move confirmed a breakout after BTC recorded a weekly candle close of $71.2k, above the previous cycle’s all-time high of $69k.

This is an automatic translation of our English version.