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(Washington, United States) No one doubts that the elections in El Salvador next Sunday, February 4, will re-victimize President Nayib Bukele., Nor that his party Nuevas Ideas will once again get a majority in Congress. But looking at the surveys, few analysts even dare to mark it strong danger of becoming a country hegemonic party systemOpposition became minimal.
“The surveys are clear in indicating a hegemonic party model. “The opposition will become very weak and it is possible that many small parties will disappear.” Researcher Oscar Picardo Joao, director of Francisco Gavidia University’s Institute of Science, Technology and Innovation, said during an event organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based think tank.
According to the latest polls published in El Salvador, Bukele’s voting intention is between 70.9% and 81.9 percent. One of those polls, a consortium of organizations called “Observa El Salvador 2024”, estimates that Nuevas Ideas will have 57 out of 60 delegates.
The parties that aspire to at least a very small presence in Congress are the Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA) and the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN). Picardo said based on surveys that those that could possibly be missing and do not have parliamentary representation would be the Vamos, Nuestro Tiempo parties, the National Concertation Party (PCN), Fuerza Solidaria and the Christian Democratic Party (PDC).
Also participating in the event organized by the Washington think tank were Salvadorans Maximo Zaldivar, regional director of the International Foundation for Electoral Systems for Latin America and the Caribbean, and Leonor Arteaga, program director of the Foundation for Due Process of Law.
Yes, OK The Constitution of El Salvador explicitly prohibits the re-election of the President, Congress was renewed after winning the midterm elections and Bukele’s party got an overwhelming majority, The ruling party replaced the magistrates of the Constitutional Chamber who subsequently reinterpreted Magna Carta. To enable re-election.
The president, who requested a six-month leave of absence due to the election campaign, has high popularity ratings because with his tough policy against gangs he managed to significantly reduce the crime rate and improve public security, although Limited rights and exceptions with a rule that is close to two years old.
Zaldivar recalled how, at the end of the constitutional deadline set to make electoral changes, the Bukele-dominated Congress had reduced the number of municipalities and the number of legislative seats. The number of mayors decreased from 262 to 44, reducing the chances for many opponents of retaining local power.
apart from 24 seats were snatched from Congress, hence only 60 MLAs will be left. These changes, in expert opinion, “are a clear disregard for the 1992 peace agreements, which are the closest we have to a social compact in El Salvador.” But beyond that, like independent experts, Zaldívar also considers They further limit the opposition’s chances of reaching positions at the local level or in Congress.
“There appears to be a well-planned political objective behind all these changes. Now, I wouldn’t go so far as to say that the outcome of the elections will be affected by this, but they will certainly make it more difficult for the already diminished political opposition to reach elected office,” Zaldivar said.
The electoral system in El Salvador requires that parties have a minimum number of votes so that they do not lose registration. Additionally, the changes have made it more difficult for a smaller party to reach the Congress, as it favors alliances or larger parties while distributing seats.
For Picardo, in addition to structural changes, the reduction of non-governmental space will occur partly because “the opposition did not solve the problem of the past, did not prepare for the new scenario, did not manage to mark their opponent and their Don’t have donors or resources”.
Like Zaldivar, Picardo believes that with the electoral reforms carried out by the government and the new form of territorial organization, Bukele ultimately created a structure that “concentrates power more” in his hands and his New Ideas party.
Another factor, in Picardo’s opinion, that influences this lack of protest to a minimum is strong official propaganda. “The government propaganda industry is influential nationally and internationally. Bukele’s social networks amplify and amplify everything. The disparities between the opposition and the ruling party are incredibly high, the researcher said.
Arteaga, for his part, warned that a second Bukele government would likely see “more attacks on civil society, independent media and anyone who criticizes or thinks differently from the government.”
Arteaga identified at least five tactics deployed by Bukele “Near Civil Place”: declaration of a state of exception; official discourse that stigmatizes human rights defenders and journalists as “enemies”; selective oppression of independent media; manipulation of reservations and public information; and imposing excessive controls on the media and civil society organizations.
According to the program director of the Foundation for Due Process, this authoritarian growth “poses many challenges for civil society organizations in El Salvador.”
