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(CNN) — The attack on Monday on the Iranian Consulate in the Syrian capital, Damascus, could represent the most dangerous escalation outside Gaza in the Middle East since the war between Israel and Hamas began nearly six months ago.
Syria and Iran blamed Israel for the airstrike that destroyed a consular building, killing Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and several other officers, including another top commander. Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi was also included. Israeli officials have not commented on the incidents.
The attack is the latest in a series of apparent Israeli bombings targeting the IRGC and the Iranian-backed Lebanese Islamist group Hezbollah in Syria. So far, despite repeated threats by Iran and Hezbollah’s leadership to respond to Israel’s attacks, the attacks have not provoked any reaction beyond months of clashes along Israel’s border with Lebanon.
However, this incident on Monday could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. Technically, Iran’s consulate is part of that country’s sovereign territory, making the attack the most direct attack against Iranian soil in years. Additionally, Zahedi is the highest-profile target since former US President Donald Trump ordered the strike on renowned IRGC General Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad in January 2020.
Mohammad Ali Shabani, an Iranian analyst and editor of the online magazine Amwaj.media, wrote in a post on Ali Khamenei has been locked in a box.” ,
“Iran’s supreme leader is being embarrassed in front of his own Praetorian Guard, and the Quds Force will find it difficult to justify Khamenei’s indecision to Iran’s regional allies.”
It is difficult to imagine a response from Iran that does not include its most powerful ally, Hezbollah. This Lebanese Shia group has been involved in daily shootouts with Israeli forces since 8 October. For nearly six months, it has walked a fine line between trying to limit its area of operations to the border area and at the same time trying to enforce the rules tit-for-tat. This has become more difficult as Israel attacks targets beyond the border area with increasing frequency (Israeli airstrikes hit a major city in eastern Lebanon last week).
Iran’s regional allies say they started the conflict with Israel on behalf of Palestinians in Gaza, where more than 32,000 people have been killed, according to local officials. This has increased his regional popularity and strengthened his political position at the national level. But he has tried to avoid full-scale regional tensions, which is a relief for Washington, which has tried its best to prevent war in the Middle East.
This could be a volatile situation after Monday’s attack, which has once again brought the region to the brink of extended war.
