These are the reasons the 2024 Yankees will be better than you think

Last year, by Yankee standards, the Yankees were a disaster, winning only 82 games and finishing in fourth place for the first time since 1992. Although they were not officially eliminated from postseason contention until September 24, their chances dropped to less than 10%. In early August and never recovered. Basically, he spent the last two months following the formality. That word “disaster”? It is not ours. This was reported by Brian Cashman, and then they went big to try to sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto this winter… before the Japanese giant chose the Dodgers.

The sentiment entering 2024 can’t be good, especially with the Orioles finally making some moves. So imagine our surprise when we turned to FanGraphs’ projections for this season and saw that the Yankees were not only given a positive rating, but they were considered good with a winning percentage of .549, down from last year. Well above .503.

Projections are not predictions, and nothing is guaranteed, especially when so many big-name free agents have not signed yet. But the numbers have proven useful, and as we wait for spring matchups to begin, it’s a good time to look at why the databases favor the Yankees more than fans on social media.

“Fans are very optimistic about teams when things are going well,” analyst Dan Szymborski wrote in presenting his own Yankees projections, “and very pessimistic when things go wrong.”

perfect. What happened last year has no bearing on what will happen this year, especially when you consider the effects of roster changes and injuries, and as bad as things got in 2023, they still didn’t end up with a negative record. So what do the statistics say this time? Even if we don’t completely agree with them, it’s still important to find out why they say what they say.

1) They may have two of the four best hitters in baseball

Truth. While the disappointment in not signing Yamamoto is understandable, it also seems very easy to forget that the Yankees landed Juan Soto, who has a career OPS of .946 at age 24. As we’ve noted numerous times, One of the best career starts of all time. (It shouldn’t be overlooked that he only has one year before free agency, but that’s not particularly relevant when looking at just the 2024 campaign.)

According to Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA, Soto is the most projected hitter, slightly ahead of Aaron Judge. FanGraphs’ Steamers projections have Soto ranked first and Judge fourth; Bat Ax says Judge is in first place and Soto is in fourth; ZiPS says Judge and Soto are tied for third place. The actual order and ranking don’t really matter; What matters is that everyone agrees that two of the four best hitters in baseball wear the classic pinstripe. Of those two, Soto made no plate appearances for the Yankees in 2023, while they gave players like Willie Calhoun, Jake Bauers, Billy McKinney, Dominican Franchi Cordero nearly 1,500 appearances. The second, Judge, missed two months due to one of the strangest injuries imaginable.

Put it this way: Soto is projected to be a player with a WAR of around 6.0. The same applies for the judge. Last year the Yankees outfield was collectively worth 2.9 WAR and ranked 25th in the majors. Yes, that means the rest of the non-Judge outfielders have collectively earned a negative net worth.

It’s hard to overstate what it means for Calhoun, Bauers, McKinney and company to turn over Soto. It would not be a stretch to say that the Yankees could win eight to ten games based solely on the performance of their outfield, given how poor their performance was last year.

2) This will be the best reinforced roster in the American League.

In addition to Soto, the Yankees completely revamped their outfield, adding Trent Grisham as part of a trade with San Diego and Mexican-American Alex Verdugo in a trade with Boston. (As we noted at the time of the trade with the Padres, the team went from the fourth-worst left fielder/center fielder positions to the best at both positions in four days.) The Bronx Bombers traded for Marcus Stroman to add depth in the middle of the rotation. Also signed. Of course, there weren’t just additions; Michael King and several other pitchers went to the Padres for Soto.

While not being able to sign Yamamoto is sad, it’s really something that doesn’t count here, as the Japanese was never a part of the organization. In fact, if we look at the 2024 projections that were made in early November – long after all the free agents were no longer part of their 2023 teams – and compare them to the current 2024 projections, it doesn’t surprise anyone. Will not do. See the Dodgers who added the most projected value. but if would be surprised Watch later as the Yankees follow them.

This has the effect of adding Soto, Verdugo, Stroman, and Grisham, although missing King.

We can say that, so far, the Yankees have not managed to accomplish all of their objectives this winter. But that doesn’t mean they won’t add a lot of value in 2024.

3) A little more luck is expected in terms of health…

Last winter, the Yankees signed the defending American League MVP and a starter who had finished in the top six in Cy Young Award voting the previous two seasons. Judge then missed two months with a big toe injury, and left-hander Carlos Rodon’s Yankees debut could not have gone worse, suffering hand and hamstring injuries before a memorably disastrous end to the season in Kansas City. Reason.

Meanwhile, Cuban Nestor Cortes Jr., a 2022 All-Star, has missed several months because of a problem with his left shoulder and had an EFE of 4.97 when he was available. Another who was also a 2022 All-Star, guard Jose Trevino, was limited by a wrist injury and barely had an OPS of .570 before missing the second half. Aside from Gerrit Cole’s Cy Young season, the Yankees had a disappointing season, still finishing with only two fewer wins than the D-backs, who represented the National League in the World Series.

What does this mean for 2024? Both Cortes and Rodón reported early for training in Tampa, and both will be healthy. That trio – Cortes, Rodon and Trevino – combined for 1.6 WAR in 2023. In 2022, all three had a WAR value of 11. In 2024, he is projected to have 7.1 WAR. It’s not as good as it was in 2022, when everything went right for them. But it’s not as bad as 2023, when everything went wrong.

We can put it this way: One cannot simply assume that everything will work out and we will get the 2021 and 2022 versions of the two pitchers (2.64 ERA in 562 innings). Nor can we assume that 2023 (5.92 EFE in 127 episodes) will be repeated.

4) …but don’t expect a big rebound from Anthony Rizzo or Giancarlo Stanton.

This is important, because if the numbers were based on the two best versions of both, they would be very difficult to accept. Rizzo, who will turn 35 in August, had a strong start to the season last year (.880 OPS through the first two months) but suffered a concussion on May 28 due to a collision. The left-handed slugger subsequently posted a .496 OPS for the next two months before being disabled on August 1. The 34-year-old Stanton faced injury problems as usual and posted a career-worst .695 OPS.

Not projected to have a breakout season in 2024. Rizzo is projected to be the Yankees’ eighth-best ranked player with 1.4 WAR. Stanton is 12th with 0.9 WAR. Take it as a good sign that the Yankees’ positive projection doesn’t include too many expectations from this pairing.

5) The rest of the American League didn’t do much.

, for now, at least. Ask Red Sox fans how they feel about their team right now. The Blue Jays haven’t found a good way to go after big names on the market so far and have instead added lower-profile pieces. Corbin Burns’ arrival to the Orioles is a highly impressive move, but he’s the only big name they’ve added ahead of closer Craig Kimbrel, and they’ve lost injured Dominican closer Felix Bautista and right-handed starter Kyle Gibson. The Rays have also lost more than they have won.

The less we talk about the American League Central the better, and in the West, the only notable moves have been Houston’s acquisition of Josh Hader and a series of trades made by Seattle.

If the Yankees don’t meet this projection, it will be for many of the same reasons that plagued them last year – an old, slow, injury-prone roster proving to be old, slow and injury-prone. (This would not be due to the overuse of ‘analytics’ against which Cashman has rightly railed.) It would be because he had a good offseason but did not continue to put in further effort, although according to reports he had already signed on a free transfer. The agent has made left-hander Blake Snell an offer. Perhaps, compared to the expectations of the “Yamasoto” winter, it has been disappointing. This will go a long way. There are still many positive things to highlight here.