According to consulting firms, the dollar will reach its highest price in 2024

He The price of the official dollar is losing more and more competitiveness Last December, after the implementation of a strong devaluation, monthly inflation rose to above 20%, so the market feared that it would make a new jump so as not to be left behind. Even in a new international survey among local and foreign economists, some Experts warn in their negative forecasts that the exchange rate could quadruple Before the year ends.

This is because the consulting firm conducted a survey among 40 analysts. FocusEconomicsOne group says that Official wholesale dollar may arrive To reach the maximum bid of $3,635 at the end of December coming.

a shape that represents a Currency devaluation planned by 350% throughout 2024Because today it is trading around $835.

Therefore, if it reaches the maximum expected value, the U.S. banknote will beat inflation The consensus of economists participating in the World Report who predict that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will increase 296.9% over the year, This figure represents about 16.8 percentage points more than the estimate for the same period last January.

As a result, despite the words of the Economy Minister, Luis “Toto” CaputoHe Denied that new devaluation is “inevitable” And amid continued purchases of foreign currency for Central Bank reserves ahead of the sector’s strong liquidation, bank analysts and consulting firms estimate that the wholesale dollar price is likely to climb in line with other variables.

Dollar price with negative forecasts

Although he common agreement For wholesale exchange rate quotes Which is estimated by experts surveyed by FocusEconomics $1,805 by the end of December Coming in, some economists say there are reasons for that figure to double.

High price forecast (or pessimistic) Officials are headed to the dollar until the end of 2024 National Consultancy LCGFounded by Martin Lostau, who predicts it will reach $3,635,

This is due to a The inertia of inflation that has caused prices to rise by more than 20% monthly since December and, according to this consulting firm, could continue until March, so it is “likely to avoid ending the erosion of the official exchange rate” “Competitiveness achieved with the December devaluation will demand a new reform in They claim.

After LCG, in the middle more negative forecasts they follow him balancewhich is another national consulting firm, which estimates $3,000 At the end of the year. and then they are located Econview ,$2,803) And Analytica Consultingwith 2,388 pesos.

“We estimate a acceleration of crawling peg (Slow devaluation) starting in March, encouraging the government to liquidate gross harvests and accumulate reserves. “Our scenario implies consolidation of the dollar price starting in the spring, which requires a small exchange rate jump of convergence,” he summarized to iProfessional. Lorraine Giorgio, Chief economist at consulting firm Equilibra.

In this same line, Tomas Alvarez KunhleAnalytica Consultora’s economists, in this medium, say: “In our scenario, We expect new devaluation in April Reconstructing the currency’s competitiveness in the period of largest volume of rough crop liquidation. However, to prevent the impact on price increases, the monthly depreciation rate will move below inflation in the months immediately following.”

And he explains: “Between August and December it will develop like this, and the exchange rate will rise above $2,000.”

Dollar in the eyes of the market

Due to extremely high inertia of inflation from December to present, which is more than 20% monthly The eyes of economists are fixed on the fact that after all this increase in prices is happening. Is transferred to the official dollar rate.

For an idea, consulting firm LCG looks at that today The real exchange rate is still 40% higher than the value of last December 10,

Therefore, if economic price growth continues at these levels and official devaluation of 2% or 3% per month is maintained, as the Central Bank was implementing till a few days ago, Exchange competitiveness will be affected in the short term.

For now, in Mataba-Rofex Futures and Options Market This is under negotiation as of the end of the present february a wholesale dollar $846About 1.4% higher than today.

and for the last days of marchis located around the operating value $881Which means that a devaluation of 4.2 percent has been considered next month.

Finally, in Mataba-Rofex we wait for its conclusion The official wholesale dollar on December 1 was $1,750., A price that is similar to the current consensus determined by FocusEconomics, and which represents half of that set by the riskiest estimates.

beyond that, more negative forecasts For him dollar price These are carried out by consulting firms considered serious by all analysts, because they take into account the possibility of generating a less favorable scenario than prescribed for some variables of the economy, such as the government not controlling inflation within the prescribed period. To be done. Therefore, the market pays attention to these possible scenarios and remains cautious.-